Virginia's major-party candidates for governor dueled for votes yesterday across the Washington area's conservative outer suburbs, as Democrat Mark R. Warner continued to make inroads in territory that has been crucial to Republican successes. 
Warner and GOP rival Mark L. Earley followed parallel paths through the region, both stopping in Manassas, Leesburg and other spots to mingle with voters that Republican strategists said should be solidly in their column this late in the election season.
Warner capped the day with an endorsement from Leesburg's Republican mayor, B.J. Webb. She blasted the "negative tone" of Earley's campaign, and said his opposition to a referendum on a sales tax increase to improve transportation helped persuade her to bolt party ranks after years as a GOP activist. Two Republican state lawmakers and a former GOP governor have done the same.
"We are dying from transportation gridlock, which is affecting every facet of every person's life," Webb said.
Of Earley, she said, "He's having a hard time connecting with people."
Republicans have long relied on support in the outer suburbs to neutralize the Democratic bastions of Arlington, Alexandria and the inner portions of Fairfax County. Northern Virginia typically contributes one-quarter of the state's votes, more than any other region. But its deep divisions often have kept it from being decisive in statewide elections.
Warner threatens to undo that formula. Washington Post polling last week showed him with a 4-to-1 lead inside the Capital Beltway but also a 9 percentage point lead outside it, a region including parts of Fairfax and all of Prince William, Loudoun, Stafford and Fauquier counties -- the Republican heartland of Northern Virginia.
Earley dismissed indications that he is struggling in the outer suburbs. "I don't think we are, and I think you'll see that on Election Day," he said.
The areas remain fundamentally conservative, concerned about schools and generally averse to new taxes. Gov. James S. Gilmore III (R) managed a landslide win in the outer counties in 1997 on the strength of his pledge to repeal the car tax and hire 4,000 teachers. And last year, Republican George Allen lost Northern Virginia but did well enough in the outer suburbs to blunt a strong showing for then-U.S. Sen. Charles S. Robb (D) inside the Beltway. Allen's top issue: a tax break for education expenses.
"The key for a Republican candidate statewide is to hold down his losses in Northern Virginia," said Mark J. Rozell, a Catholic University professor of political science.
Warner's support for gun rights and the death penalty have made him more appealing to conservatives, say strategists. And Earley's staunch opposition to the sales tax referendum, which he has promised to veto, has pushed some voters into the arms of Warner.
Despite the resistance to tax increases in the outer suburbs, voters expressed irritation at Earley's pledge to block the referendum. If it passed, it would increase the sales tax in Northern Virginia by a half-cent, raising $130 million a year for transportation projects in the region.
Warner has projected that $900 million in projects could be funded with the sales tax increase through borrowing. It amounts to 40 percent of his $2.25 billion transportation plan, though he says he has no position on whether such a ballot proposal should pass.
Many voters -- including some of those who oppose the tax increase -- say they want a chance to decide the issue.
"I want it to go away, and it won't go away until the people get a chance to vote on it," said James White Jr., 39, a Leesburg air traffic controller who voted for Allen last year and plans to vote for Warner on Tuesday. "It's gotten to the point of annoyance."
The Post polls showed overwhelming support for a referendum inside the Beltway, but even outside the Beltway, it was favored nearly 2 to 1.
Warner said the issue explains much of his success in Northern Virginia.
"We're crossing a lot of the traditional lines," he said. "Northern Virginia voters don't like to be told they shouldn't even be allowed to vote on their future, regardless of whether they support the referendum or not."
Republicans also say that the General Assembly's budget deadlock this spring has fractured their support. The backlash against Gilmore, who is not on the ballot Tuesday, has hurt Earley.
Del. Harry J. Parrish, a Republican and former mayor of Manassas, said the city and much of Prince William County would ultimately fall in behind Earley, but he acknowledged uneasiness about Warner's gains there.
"It wouldn't have been even close if we'd had a budget," Parrish said.
At a campaign stop in Manassas, Earley told several dozen supporters in front of City Hall that his campaign is gaining momentum as Election Day nears. He said voters would opt for experienced leadership after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11. 
Earley has nearly 14 years in state government as a senator from Chesapeake and as attorney general. Warner, a venture capitalist and longtime Democratic Party activist, has never held public office.
Earley also stressed his plan to improve public schools and hold down taxes. He mentioned the sales tax referendum only indirectly in those remarks.
"We're going to make sure we don't raise taxes on the people of Virginia," he said as supporters waved signs behind him. "In fact, we're going to cut taxes so the people of Virginia can keep more of what they earn."
The message is working with some voters.
Retired teacher Jane Sowards, 64, who taught business education at Loudoun County High School for 26 years, was at first leaning toward Warner because of his emphasis on vocational education.
"Then I keep learning about the new taxes for roads, so I'm stymied because I truly believe in enhancing vocational education . . . but I don't want higher taxes," she said.
The polling numbers suggest that the concern is widespread, with outer suburban voters believing by 2 to 1 that Warner will raise taxes. A narrow majority agree even inside the Beltway.
The finding suggests that voters may draw a distinction between different taxes. They turned out heavily for Gilmore to repeal the car tax, which required motorists to write a big check each year for no single purpose. But they may be more willing to consider a sales tax increase that would be spread out over the year and would go to a specific, pressing problem -- traffic.
"Like it or not, if you don't pay taxes, you don't get services," said Ned Friece, 54, a retired federal employee from Manassas who voted for Gilmore four years ago but plans to vote for Warner on Tuesday.
Earley supporter Barry Constant, 37, agreed. "I don't mind paying a half-a-cent sales tax if they really use them for road improvements, because we really need road improvements."
But another Earley supporter, 58-year-old Kenneth Daniel of Leesburg, said he watched similar initiatives during several years of living in Colorado. He warned that Northern Virginians might be disappointed in the referendum even it if does happen.
"The taxes never go away," Daniel said, "and the roads never get better."
Virginia Governor's Race