Now What? 

collapse of the last organized resistance by al Qaeda in Afghanistan's White Mountains, the war against terrorism has reached a turning point. The possibilities for conventional military operations against the terrorists and their hosts have been all but exhausted, at least in Afghanistan. Afghan opposition forces have declared victory over both al Qaeda and the Taliban regime, and are preparing to install a new government this weekend. Apart from a few isolated pockets of resistance, there are few targets left for U.S. bombing. Secretary of State Colin Powell says that "we've destroyed al Qaeda in Afghanistan, and we have ended the role of Afghanistan as a haven for terrorist activity." And yet, Osama bin Laden and Mohammad Omar remain at large, as do the great majority of other al Qaeda and Taliban leaders. That means that the war -- even this first phase of the war -- cannot be over; instead, it now may have to be fought by different, and more complicated, means.
As successful as the U.S. military campaign has been, its limits also are now apparent. President Bush has stressed from the beginning that the United States is not at war with Afghanistan or its people but with the terrorists; consequently, the capture of the country by U.S.-allied forces, and even the elimination of the Taliban and al Qaeda resistance, means less than it would in a conventional conflict. As Mr. Powell pointed out, Afghanistan's place as a site for the open training and basing of terrorists has been eliminated. But as long as the leadership of al Qaeda survives, it may be able to organize and order attacks on the United States by the cells it has dispersed around the world; and as long as the Taliban's top leadership remains at large, the U.S. vow to hold sponsors of terrorism accountable will remain unfulfilled, and the possibility of a comeback by the extremists will remain. The Afghan practice of negotiating the surrender of Taliban commanders, rather than crushing them not only has left many senior officials at large but also has given the new government a stake in protecting them from U.S. retribution.
Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld rightly stressed yesterday that the Afghan campaign remains far from over. "There are still a lot of Taliban" and al Qaeda in the country, he said, "and it's going to take time and energy and effort, and people will be killed in the process of trying to find them and capture them or have them surrender." Careful diplomacy also will be needed, both with the new Afghan authorities and with the government of Pakistan, where many of the terrorists may be hiding. The United States must persuade its new Afghan allies to move against Mohammad Omar and other senior Taliban leaders, or allow U.S. forces to act -- even if it disrupts the fragile truce arrangements or the effort to deploy an international peacekeeping force under British command. Similarly, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf must be encouraged to take the next step in his journey toward alliance with the West by cracking down hard on any Taliban or al Qaeda forces that have slipped into his country -- even though that may offend elements in the armed forces that remain sympathetic to the Taliban. The next few weeks may determine whether the al Qaeda forces now on the run will be able to reestablish themselves, perhaps clandestinely, as a presence in Afghanistan, Pakistan or somewhere else. Even if it means offending allies both old and new, the United States must act aggressively to prevent that from happening.